{
  "version": 3,
  "label": "Per 100,000 treated eligible original-COD orders; planning assumptions, not measured effects, supplier quotes or a national forecast",
  "methodology": "60% handover,20% confidence,20% prepaid are proposed test-resource allocations, not market shares or measured eligible reach. Fixed demand. Original-COD denominator retained for prepaid migrations. Incremental conversion is relative to control; reward multiplier includes reward leakage. No early-cancellation revenue or allocated-overhead cash benefit.",
  "lead_handover_scenarios": {
    "Low": {
      "inputs": {
        "exposed_orders": 100000,
        "intent_share": 0,
        "handover_share": 1,
        "prepaid_offer_share": 0,
        "baseline_failure": 0.29,
        "intent_drop": 0.02,
        "handover_drop": 0.005,
        "incremental_prepaid_conversion": 0.1,
        "migrated_failure": 0.12,
        "intent_cost": 2.0,
        "handover_cost": 2.5,
        "reward": 5.0,
        "reward_multiplier": 2,
        "payment_fee": 0.02,
        "intent_aov": 450.0,
        "handover_aov": 800.0,
        "prepaid_aov": 800.0,
        "commission": 0.1,
        "extra_success_cost": 5.0,
        "reverse_cost": 50.0,
        "overhead_cost": 60.0,
        "initial_budget": 2500000
      },
      "rows": [
        {
          "name": "Purchase confidence",
          "exposed": 0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 0.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 0.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 0.0,
          "recovered_commission": 0.0,
          "programme_cost": 0.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 0.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "name": "Planned handover",
          "exposed": 100000,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 500.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 25000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 30000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 40000.0,
          "programme_cost": 250000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 2500.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": -187500.0
        },
        {
          "name": "First prepaid purchase",
          "exposed": 0,
          "migrated": 0.0,
          "recovered": 0.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 0.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 0.0,
          "recovered_commission": 0.0,
          "programme_cost": 0.0,
          "payment_fees": 0.0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 0.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "totals": {
        "exposed": 100000,
        "migrated": 0.0,
        "recovered": 500.0,
        "reverse_avoided": 25000.0,
        "allocated_overhead": 30000.0,
        "recovered_commission": 40000.0,
        "programme_cost": 250000.0,
        "payment_fees": 0.0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 2500.0,
        "net_modelled_contribution": -187500.0,
        "operating_spend": 252500.0,
        "contribution_after_initial_budget": -2687500.0,
        "cod_share_in_evaluated_original_cod_pool": 1.0
      }
    },
    "Base": {
      "inputs": {
        "exposed_orders": 100000,
        "intent_share": 0,
        "handover_share": 1,
        "prepaid_offer_share": 0,
        "baseline_failure": 0.29,
        "intent_drop": 0.04,
        "handover_drop": 0.03,
        "incremental_prepaid_conversion": 0.2,
        "migrated_failure": 0.1,
        "intent_cost": 2.0,
        "handover_cost": 1.5,
        "reward": 5.0,
        "reward_multiplier": 1.5,
        "payment_fee": 0.01,
        "intent_aov": 450.0,
        "handover_aov": 800.0,
        "prepaid_aov": 800.0,
        "commission": 0.1,
        "extra_success_cost": 5.0,
        "reverse_cost": 50.0,
        "overhead_cost": 60.0,
        "initial_budget": 2500000
      },
      "rows": [
        {
          "name": "Purchase confidence",
          "exposed": 0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 0.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 0.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 0.0,
          "recovered_commission": 0.0,
          "programme_cost": 0.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 0.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "name": "Planned handover",
          "exposed": 100000,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 3000.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 150000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 180000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 240000.0,
          "programme_cost": 150000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 15000.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 225000.0
        },
        {
          "name": "First prepaid purchase",
          "exposed": 0,
          "migrated": 0.0,
          "recovered": 0.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 0.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 0.0,
          "recovered_commission": 0.0,
          "programme_cost": 0.0,
          "payment_fees": 0.0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 0.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "totals": {
        "exposed": 100000,
        "migrated": 0.0,
        "recovered": 3000.0,
        "reverse_avoided": 150000.0,
        "allocated_overhead": 180000.0,
        "recovered_commission": 240000.0,
        "programme_cost": 150000.0,
        "payment_fees": 0.0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 15000.0,
        "net_modelled_contribution": 225000.0,
        "operating_spend": 165000.0,
        "contribution_after_initial_budget": -2275000.0,
        "cod_share_in_evaluated_original_cod_pool": 1.0
      }
    },
    "High": {
      "inputs": {
        "exposed_orders": 100000,
        "intent_share": 0,
        "handover_share": 1,
        "prepaid_offer_share": 0,
        "baseline_failure": 0.29,
        "intent_drop": 0.06,
        "handover_drop": 0.05,
        "incremental_prepaid_conversion": 0.3,
        "migrated_failure": 0.08,
        "intent_cost": 2.0,
        "handover_cost": 1.5,
        "reward": 5.0,
        "reward_multiplier": 1.2,
        "payment_fee": 0.008,
        "intent_aov": 450.0,
        "handover_aov": 800.0,
        "prepaid_aov": 800.0,
        "commission": 0.1,
        "extra_success_cost": 5.0,
        "reverse_cost": 50.0,
        "overhead_cost": 60.0,
        "initial_budget": 2500000
      },
      "rows": [
        {
          "name": "Purchase confidence",
          "exposed": 0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 0.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 0.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 0.0,
          "recovered_commission": 0.0,
          "programme_cost": 0.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 0.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 0.0
        },
        {
          "name": "Planned handover",
          "exposed": 100000,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 5000.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 250000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 300000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 400000.0,
          "programme_cost": 150000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 25000.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 475000.0
        },
        {
          "name": "First prepaid purchase",
          "exposed": 0,
          "migrated": 0.0,
          "recovered": 0.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 0.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 0.0,
          "recovered_commission": 0.0,
          "programme_cost": 0.0,
          "payment_fees": 0.0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 0.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 0.0
        }
      ],
      "totals": {
        "exposed": 100000,
        "migrated": 0.0,
        "recovered": 5000.0,
        "reverse_avoided": 250000.0,
        "allocated_overhead": 300000.0,
        "recovered_commission": 400000.0,
        "programme_cost": 150000.0,
        "payment_fees": 0.0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 25000.0,
        "net_modelled_contribution": 475000.0,
        "operating_spend": 175000.0,
        "contribution_after_initial_budget": -2025000.0,
        "cod_share_in_evaluated_original_cod_pool": 1.0
      }
    }
  },
  "handover_stress_tests": [
    {
      "label": "Base target",
      "completion_gain_pp": 3.0,
      "cost_per_assigned_order": 1.5,
      "recovered_aov": 800.0,
      "reverse_saving_per_recovery": 50.0,
      "contribution_per_100k": 225000.0
    },
    {
      "label": "Higher operating cost",
      "completion_gain_pp": 3.0,
      "cost_per_assigned_order": 2.5,
      "recovered_aov": 800.0,
      "reverse_saving_per_recovery": 50.0,
      "contribution_per_100k": 125000.0
    },
    {
      "label": "Lower rescued basket and higher cost",
      "completion_gain_pp": 3.0,
      "cost_per_assigned_order": 2.5,
      "recovered_aov": 450,
      "reverse_saving_per_recovery": 50.0,
      "contribution_per_100k": 20000.0
    },
    {
      "label": "No reverse saving and higher cost",
      "completion_gain_pp": 3.0,
      "cost_per_assigned_order": 2.5,
      "recovered_aov": 800.0,
      "reverse_saving_per_recovery": 0,
      "contribution_per_100k": -25000.0
    },
    {
      "label": "Lower completion gain and higher cost",
      "completion_gain_pp": 0.5,
      "cost_per_assigned_order": 2.5,
      "recovered_aov": 800.0,
      "reverse_saving_per_recovery": 50.0,
      "contribution_per_100k": -187500.0
    }
  ],
  "recovery_hurdles": {
    "planning_failure_rate_pct": 29,
    "base_completion_gain_pp": 3,
    "base_share_of_otherwise_failed_orders_pct": 10.344827586206897,
    "operating_break_even_gain_pp": 1.2,
    "break_even_share_of_otherwise_failed_orders_pct": 4.137931034482759,
    "limitation": "Illustrative equivalent shares at the national29% planning baseline, not identified recoverable failures or measured pilot baselines. Break-even excludes setup and uses stated unit inputs."
  },
  "pilot_release_gates": [
    "Before build: carrier-supported action, acknowledgment ownership, billing, cost and enrollment feasibility signed off by country operations and finance.",
    "Before prepaid development or enrollment: product/payments approval, buyer funding/refund design, settlement and carrier cash-due consistency, safe fallback and separate instrumentation.",
    "Before randomization: cohort baselines, power, guardrails and mature-outcome definitions locked. If any supporting cohort is infeasible, recost and reapprove the design; do not retain unchanged portfolio outcomes."
  ],
  "portfolio_scenarios": {
    "Low": {
      "inputs": {
        "exposed_orders": 100000,
        "intent_share": 0.2,
        "handover_share": 0.6,
        "prepaid_offer_share": 0.2,
        "baseline_failure": 0.29,
        "intent_drop": 0.02,
        "handover_drop": 0.005,
        "incremental_prepaid_conversion": 0.1,
        "migrated_failure": 0.12,
        "intent_cost": 2.0,
        "handover_cost": 2.5,
        "reward": 5.0,
        "reward_multiplier": 2,
        "payment_fee": 0.02,
        "intent_aov": 450.0,
        "handover_aov": 800.0,
        "prepaid_aov": 800.0,
        "commission": 0.1,
        "extra_success_cost": 5.0,
        "reverse_cost": 50.0,
        "overhead_cost": 60.0,
        "initial_budget": 2500000
      },
      "rows": [
        {
          "name": "Purchase confidence",
          "exposed": 20000.0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 400.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 20000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 24000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 18000.0,
          "programme_cost": 40000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 2000.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": -4000.0
        },
        {
          "name": "Planned handover",
          "exposed": 60000.0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 300.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 15000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 18000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 24000.0,
          "programme_cost": 150000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 1500.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": -112500.0
        },
        {
          "name": "First prepaid purchase",
          "exposed": 20000.0,
          "migrated": 2000.0,
          "recovered": 339.99999999999994,
          "reverse_avoided": 16999.999999999996,
          "allocated_overhead": 34800.0,
          "recovered_commission": 27199.999999999996,
          "programme_cost": 20000.0,
          "payment_fees": 32000.0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 1699.9999999999998,
          "net_modelled_contribution": -9500.000000000007
        }
      ],
      "totals": {
        "exposed": 100000.0,
        "migrated": 2000.0,
        "recovered": 1040.0,
        "reverse_avoided": 52000.0,
        "allocated_overhead": 76800.0,
        "recovered_commission": 69200.0,
        "programme_cost": 210000.0,
        "payment_fees": 32000.0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 5200.0,
        "net_modelled_contribution": -126000.0,
        "operating_spend": 247200.0,
        "contribution_after_initial_budget": -2626000.0,
        "cod_share_in_evaluated_original_cod_pool": 0.98
      }
    },
    "Base": {
      "inputs": {
        "exposed_orders": 100000,
        "intent_share": 0.2,
        "handover_share": 0.6,
        "prepaid_offer_share": 0.2,
        "baseline_failure": 0.29,
        "intent_drop": 0.04,
        "handover_drop": 0.03,
        "incremental_prepaid_conversion": 0.2,
        "migrated_failure": 0.1,
        "intent_cost": 2.0,
        "handover_cost": 1.5,
        "reward": 5.0,
        "reward_multiplier": 1.5,
        "payment_fee": 0.01,
        "intent_aov": 450.0,
        "handover_aov": 800.0,
        "prepaid_aov": 800.0,
        "commission": 0.1,
        "extra_success_cost": 5.0,
        "reverse_cost": 50.0,
        "overhead_cost": 60.0,
        "initial_budget": 2500000
      },
      "rows": [
        {
          "name": "Purchase confidence",
          "exposed": 20000.0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 800.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 40000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 48000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 36000.0,
          "programme_cost": 40000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 4000.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 32000.0
        },
        {
          "name": "Planned handover",
          "exposed": 60000.0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 1800.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 90000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 108000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 144000.0,
          "programme_cost": 90000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 9000.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 135000.0
        },
        {
          "name": "First prepaid purchase",
          "exposed": 20000.0,
          "migrated": 4000.0,
          "recovered": 759.9999999999999,
          "reverse_avoided": 37999.99999999999,
          "allocated_overhead": 69600.0,
          "recovered_commission": 60799.99999999999,
          "programme_cost": 30000.0,
          "payment_fees": 32000.0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 3799.9999999999995,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 32999.999999999985
        }
      ],
      "totals": {
        "exposed": 100000.0,
        "migrated": 4000.0,
        "recovered": 3360.0,
        "reverse_avoided": 168000.0,
        "allocated_overhead": 225600.0,
        "recovered_commission": 240800.0,
        "programme_cost": 160000.0,
        "payment_fees": 32000.0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 16800.0,
        "net_modelled_contribution": 200000.0,
        "operating_spend": 208800.0,
        "contribution_after_initial_budget": -2300000.0,
        "cod_share_in_evaluated_original_cod_pool": 0.96
      }
    },
    "High": {
      "inputs": {
        "exposed_orders": 100000,
        "intent_share": 0.2,
        "handover_share": 0.6,
        "prepaid_offer_share": 0.2,
        "baseline_failure": 0.29,
        "intent_drop": 0.06,
        "handover_drop": 0.05,
        "incremental_prepaid_conversion": 0.3,
        "migrated_failure": 0.08,
        "intent_cost": 2.0,
        "handover_cost": 1.5,
        "reward": 5.0,
        "reward_multiplier": 1.2,
        "payment_fee": 0.008,
        "intent_aov": 450.0,
        "handover_aov": 800.0,
        "prepaid_aov": 800.0,
        "commission": 0.1,
        "extra_success_cost": 5.0,
        "reverse_cost": 50.0,
        "overhead_cost": 60.0,
        "initial_budget": 2500000
      },
      "rows": [
        {
          "name": "Purchase confidence",
          "exposed": 20000.0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 1200.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 60000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 72000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 54000.0,
          "programme_cost": 40000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 6000.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 68000.0
        },
        {
          "name": "Planned handover",
          "exposed": 60000.0,
          "migrated": 0,
          "recovered": 3000.0,
          "reverse_avoided": 150000.0,
          "allocated_overhead": 180000.0,
          "recovered_commission": 240000.0,
          "programme_cost": 90000.0,
          "payment_fees": 0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 15000.0,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 285000.0
        },
        {
          "name": "First prepaid purchase",
          "exposed": 20000.0,
          "migrated": 6000.0,
          "recovered": 1259.9999999999998,
          "reverse_avoided": 62999.999999999985,
          "allocated_overhead": 104399.99999999999,
          "recovered_commission": 100799.99999999999,
          "programme_cost": 36000.0,
          "payment_fees": 38400.0,
          "extra_success_reserve": 6299.999999999999,
          "net_modelled_contribution": 83099.99999999997
        }
      ],
      "totals": {
        "exposed": 100000.0,
        "migrated": 6000.0,
        "recovered": 5460.0,
        "reverse_avoided": 273000.0,
        "allocated_overhead": 356400.0,
        "recovered_commission": 394800.0,
        "programme_cost": 166000.0,
        "payment_fees": 38400.0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 27300.0,
        "net_modelled_contribution": 436100.0,
        "operating_spend": 231700.0,
        "contribution_after_initial_budget": -2063900.0,
        "cod_share_in_evaluated_original_cod_pool": 0.94
      }
    }
  },
  "pilot": {
    "inputs": {
      "exposed_orders": 50000,
      "intent_share": 0.2,
      "handover_share": 0.6,
      "prepaid_offer_share": 0.2,
      "baseline_failure": 0.29,
      "intent_drop": 0.04,
      "handover_drop": 0.03,
      "incremental_prepaid_conversion": 0.2,
      "migrated_failure": 0.1,
      "intent_cost": 2.0,
      "handover_cost": 1.5,
      "reward": 5.0,
      "reward_multiplier": 1.5,
      "payment_fee": 0.01,
      "intent_aov": 450.0,
      "handover_aov": 800.0,
      "prepaid_aov": 800.0,
      "commission": 0.1,
      "extra_success_cost": 5.0,
      "reverse_cost": 50.0,
      "overhead_cost": 60.0,
      "initial_budget": 2500000
    },
    "rows": [
      {
        "name": "Purchase confidence",
        "exposed": 10000.0,
        "migrated": 0,
        "recovered": 400.0,
        "reverse_avoided": 20000.0,
        "allocated_overhead": 24000.0,
        "recovered_commission": 18000.0,
        "programme_cost": 20000.0,
        "payment_fees": 0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 2000.0,
        "net_modelled_contribution": 16000.0
      },
      {
        "name": "Planned handover",
        "exposed": 30000.0,
        "migrated": 0,
        "recovered": 900.0,
        "reverse_avoided": 45000.0,
        "allocated_overhead": 54000.0,
        "recovered_commission": 72000.0,
        "programme_cost": 45000.0,
        "payment_fees": 0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 4500.0,
        "net_modelled_contribution": 67500.0
      },
      {
        "name": "First prepaid purchase",
        "exposed": 10000.0,
        "migrated": 2000.0,
        "recovered": 379.99999999999994,
        "reverse_avoided": 18999.999999999996,
        "allocated_overhead": 34800.0,
        "recovered_commission": 30399.999999999996,
        "programme_cost": 15000.0,
        "payment_fees": 16000.0,
        "extra_success_reserve": 1899.9999999999998,
        "net_modelled_contribution": 16499.999999999993
      }
    ],
    "totals": {
      "exposed": 50000.0,
      "migrated": 2000.0,
      "recovered": 1680.0,
      "reverse_avoided": 84000.0,
      "allocated_overhead": 112800.0,
      "recovered_commission": 120400.0,
      "programme_cost": 80000.0,
      "payment_fees": 16000.0,
      "extra_success_reserve": 8400.0,
      "net_modelled_contribution": 100000.0,
      "operating_spend": 104400.0,
      "contribution_after_initial_budget": -2400000.0,
      "cod_share_in_evaluated_original_cod_pool": 0.96
    }
  },
  "pilot_total_orders": 100000,
  "pilot_cells": {
    "handover": {
      "treatment": 30000,
      "control": 30000
    },
    "confidence": {
      "treatment": 10000,
      "control": 10000
    },
    "prepaid": {
      "treatment": 10000,
      "control": 10000
    }
  },
  "handover_power_plan": {
    "two_sided_alpha": 0.05,
    "power": 0.8,
    "baseline_failure": 0.29,
    "alternative_failure": 0.275,
    "minimum_detectable_difference_pp": 1.5,
    "mean_cluster_orders": 100,
    "assumed_icc": 0.01,
    "design_effect": 1.99,
    "individual_orders_per_arm": 14141,
    "cluster_adjusted_orders_per_arm": 28140,
    "planned_orders_per_arm": 30000,
    "planned_clusters_per_arm": 300,
    "cluster_unit": "Stable courier-route assignment; planned100 enrolled first orders per cluster. No daily crossover.",
    "limitation": "Normal approximation and equal cluster sizes. Power is for 1.5pp versus zero, not a guarantee of economic success. Re-estimate baseline, ICC, cluster-size variation and GMV variance before assignment; extend if precision is inadequate."
  },
  "initial_budget_components": {
    "product_engineering": 1200000,
    "courier_integration_qa": 600000,
    "operations_training": 300000,
    "evaluation": 200000,
    "contingency": 200000
  },
  "initial_budget_unit_basis": [
    {
      "work": "Product/engineering",
      "person_weeks": 16,
      "loaded_php_per_week": 75000,
      "total_php": 1200000
    },
    {
      "work": "3PL integration/QA",
      "person_weeks": 12,
      "loaded_php_per_week": 50000,
      "total_php": 600000
    },
    {
      "work": "Launch operations/training",
      "person_weeks": 12,
      "loaded_php_per_week": 25000,
      "total_php": 300000
    },
    {
      "work": "Evaluation",
      "person_weeks": 4,
      "loaded_php_per_week": 50000,
      "total_php": 200000
    },
    {
      "work": "Contingency",
      "total_php": 200000
    }
  ],
  "handover_unit_cost_basis": {
    "in_app_events": 0.2,
    "exception_support": 0.9,
    "carrier_coordination": 0.4,
    "total": 1.5,
    "note": "Planning build-up: two in-app events at0.10;10% exceptions at3min\u00d7PHP180/hour;0.40 coordination. SMS/extra support must be metered and re-estimated, not assumed free. No supplier quote."
  },
  "decision_thresholds": {
    "confidence_failure_drop_pp": 2.2222222222222223,
    "handover_failure_drop_pp": 1.2,
    "prepaid_migrated_failure_pct": 16.599999999999998,
    "handover_break_even_with_zero_reverse_saving_pp": 2.0,
    "handover_setup_recovery_orders": 1111112,
    "handover_monthly_treated_orders_for_six_month_setup_recovery": 185186
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Modelled contribution is not net profit or a forecast. Per100k is a normalization; no nationwide eligible reach is asserted.",
    "The pilot has50k treatment and50k control:10k/10k confidence,30k/30k handover,10k/10k prepaid. Those are resource allocations, not observed population shares.",
    "Allocated overhead is excluded from contribution. Validate whether reductions change cash payments or release usable capacity.",
    "The PHP5 reserve covers hypothetical incremental successful-delivery costs; actual contract, support and refund costs may differ.",
    "Prepaid fees on additional rewarded-but-nonincremental buyers are not incremental when they already would have prepaid; rewards to them are captured by multiplier.",
    "No cross-segment intersection or eligibility size is observed. Selected serviceable NCR and Mindanao lanes are proposed. Feasible reach, pool baseline and AOV need measurement.",
    "Confidence and handover baseline29% are a common planning benchmark; pilot controls must measure their own actual baselines.",
    "Incremental preorder cancellations must be reported separately and included in GMV/contribution guardrails. They are not counted as recovered sales.",
    "Handover randomizes matched stable courier-route clusters once, with no daily crossover; measure variable cluster sizes, ICC and courier/route changes. Planned300clusters/arm with100 enrolled first orders/cluster, not all route traffic. Power is pooled, not separately regional. Confidence/prepaid randomize buyers in disjoint preassigned cohorts.",
    "Cancellations, dispatch suppression and pending outcomes never count as recovered paid sales; primary effects are paid-completion gains across all assigned orders.",
    "Cost rates and staff weeks are planning inputs. Confirm commercial costs at the feasibility gate; stop or redesign if the actual break-even exceeds plausible improvement.",
    "With no realizable reverse-logistics saving, handover break-even rises from1.2pp to2.0pp at the stated AOV,cost and reserve.",
    "Merchant payment fee is assumed; GCash cash-in fees describe buyer funding and do not validate a merchant rate. No partner cofunding."
  ]
}