{
  "source": "https://bytedance.feishuapp.cn/app/app_17ddqg44fxc/case-PH",
  "captured": "2026-10-24",
  "provenance": "Manually transcribed from all ten original exhibit JPEGs downloaded from the case page; figures are fictional.",
  "headline": {"daily_orders":5000000,"cod_share":0.70,"cod_failure_rate":0.29,"commission_rate":0.10,"monthly_forgone_commission_stated_php":2000000000,"days_per_month_assumption":30},
  "failure_cost_php": {"seller_forward":70,"platform_reverse":50,"platform_allocated_cash_handling":60,"total_cod":180,"total_prepaid":120},
  "payment_channels": [
    {"name":"COD","order_share":0.70,"aov_php":800,"failure_rate":0.29},
    {"name":"e-Wallet 1","order_share":0.16,"aov_php":950,"failure_rate":0.08},
    {"name":"e-Wallet 2","order_share":0.05,"aov_php":900,"failure_rate":0.09},
    {"name":"Credit Card","order_share":0.04,"aov_php":1500,"failure_rate":0.06},
    {"name":"Bank Transfer","order_share":0.02,"aov_php":1300,"failure_rate":0.07}
  ],
  "buyer_segments": [
    {"name":"< 1 month","buyer_share":0.25,"cod_order_share":0.82,"cod_failure_rate":0.38,"repeat_90d":0.14},
    {"name":"1–3 months","buyer_share":0.30,"cod_order_share":0.77,"cod_failure_rate":0.32,"repeat_90d":0.21},
    {"name":"3–6 months","buyer_share":0.20,"cod_order_share":0.71,"cod_failure_rate":0.27,"repeat_90d":0.30},
    {"name":"6–12 months","buyer_share":0.15,"cod_order_share":0.66,"cod_failure_rate":0.23,"repeat_90d":0.37},
    {"name":"> 12 months","buyer_share":0.10,"cod_order_share":0.60,"cod_failure_rate":0.18,"repeat_90d":0.44}
  ],
  "regions": [
    {"name":"Metro Manila (NCR)","order_share":0.40,"cod_share":0.55,"failure_rate":0.18},
    {"name":"Luzon (excl. NCR)","order_share":0.25,"cod_share":0.68,"failure_rate":0.26},
    {"name":"Visayas","order_share":0.18,"cod_share":0.75,"failure_rate":0.32},
    {"name":"Mindanao","order_share":0.17,"cod_share":0.78,"failure_rate":0.35}
  ],
  "delivery_speeds": [
    {"name":"Same-Day","order_share":0.08,"coverage":"NCR only","delivery_time":"Within 24 hours","failure_rate":0.12,"logistics_cost_php":120},
    {"name":"Next-Day","order_share":0.15,"coverage":"NCR + selected Luzon","delivery_time":"1–2 days","failure_rate":0.17,"logistics_cost_php":90},
    {"name":"Standard","order_share":0.62,"coverage":"Nationwide","delivery_time":"3–5 days","failure_rate":0.29,"logistics_cost_php":70},
    {"name":"Extended","order_share":0.15,"coverage":"Remote areas","delivery_time":"5–8 days","failure_rate":0.38,"logistics_cost_php":55}
  ],
  "categories": [
    {"name":"Fashion Apparel","order_share":0.28,"cod_share":0.78,"failure_rate":0.33,"aov_php":450},
    {"name":"Electronics (New)","order_share":0.08,"cod_share":0.55,"failure_rate":0.31,"aov_php":1800},
    {"name":"Electronics (Refurbished/Second-hand)","order_share":0.07,"cod_share":0.68,"failure_rate":0.29,"aov_php":1200},
    {"name":"Fashion Non-Apparel","order_share":0.12,"cod_share":0.76,"failure_rate":0.25,"aov_php":380},
    {"name":"FMCG (Beauty, Grocery, Mom Baby & Health)","order_share":0.30,"cod_share":0.72,"failure_rate":0.22,"aov_php":520},
    {"name":"Lifestyle","order_share":0.15,"cod_share":0.65,"failure_rate":0.18,"aov_php":950}
  ],
  "transaction_scenarios": [
    {"name":"Creator Livestream","order_share":0.36,"noncampaign_cod_failure_rate":0.32,"campaign_cod_failure_rate":0.38},
    {"name":"Seller self-livestream","order_share":0.22,"noncampaign_cod_failure_rate":0.24,"campaign_cod_failure_rate":0.30},
    {"name":"Short Video (with product link)","order_share":0.16,"noncampaign_cod_failure_rate":0.29,"campaign_cod_failure_rate":0.34},
    {"name":"ShopTab (Search & Browse)","order_share":0.26,"noncampaign_cod_failure_rate":0.20,"campaign_cod_failure_rate":0.26}
  ],
  "couriers": [
    {"name":"A&B Express","market_share":0.45,"cod_failure_rate":0.29,"avg_days":2.5,"reattempt_rate_as_displayed":1.6,"coverage":"Nationwide"},
    {"name":"Fast Express","market_share":0.25,"cod_failure_rate":0.31,"avg_days":2.8,"reattempt_rate_as_displayed":1.4,"coverage":"Nationwide (strong provincial)"},
    {"name":"Quick Van","market_share":0.15,"cod_failure_rate":0.33,"avg_days":3.0,"reattempt_rate_as_displayed":1.3,"coverage":"Metro + Tier 1–2 cities"},
    {"name":"XYZ Express","market_share":0.08,"cod_failure_rate":0.26,"avg_days":3.2,"reattempt_rate_as_displayed":1.7,"coverage":"Nationwide (strongest provincial & island)"},
    {"name":"Others","market_share":0.07,"cod_failure_rate":0.36,"avg_days":3.5,"reattempt_rate_as_displayed":1.2,"coverage":"Selected areas"}
  ],
  "fsv_regions": [
    {"name":"Metro Manila (NCR)","minimum_php":199,"subsidy_php":45,"volume_lift":2.0,"cod_failure_rate":0.31},
    {"name":"Luzon (excl. NCR)","minimum_php":299,"subsidy_php":55,"volume_lift":2.1,"cod_failure_rate":0.34},
    {"name":"Visayas & Mindanao","minimum_php":399,"subsidy_php":65,"volume_lift":2.3,"cod_failure_rate":0.37}
  ],
  "fsv_context": {"vouchers_per_buyer_per_week":3,"relative_failure_uplift_stated":0.15},
  "interpretation_notes": [
    "Regions, categories and delivery speeds label failure rate without explicitly specifying COD in the column. Exploratory calculations treat these as COD rates because of case context; retain this assumption.",
    "Buyer share is not order share. Do not infer buyer-cohort order volumes without order-frequency assumptions.",
    "Channel shares sum to 97%; retain a 3% unspecified residual.",
    "Courier market shares and transaction shares do not explicitly describe COD-only volume. Uniform COD mix calculations are scenarios, not observed counts.",
    "Re-attempt rate values 1.2–1.7 have no defined unit/denominator. Do not interpret them as percentages or reconstruct first-attempt failures.",
    "Cash handling PHP60 is explicitly an allocated overhead/capacity cost, not necessarily immediate cash expenditure avoided.",
    "FSV exposure share, campaign order volume and joint distributions are not supplied."
  ]
}