{
  "assumptions": {
    "days": 30,
    "failure_rates_in_region_category_interpreted_as_cod": true
  },
  "baseline": {
    "monthly_orders": 150000000,
    "monthly_cod_orders": 105000000.0,
    "monthly_failed_cod": 30449999.999999996,
    "reverse_logistics_php": 1522499999.9999998,
    "allocated_cash_overhead_php": 1826999999.9999998,
    "platform_case_cost_burden_php": 3349499999.9999995,
    "seller_forward_cost_attached_to_failed_orders_php": 2131499999.9999998,
    "commission_opportunity_at_channel_aov_php": 2435999999.9999995,
    "commission_opportunity_stated_php": 2000000000
  },
  "sensitivity": [
    {
      "cod_failure_reduction_percentage_points": 1,
      "failures_avoided": 1050000.0,
      "reverse_cost_avoided_php": 52500000.0,
      "allocated_overhead_reduction_php": 63000000.0,
      "total_case_cost_burden_reduction_php": 115500000.0,
      "maximum_cost_per_all_cod_order_before_commission_php": 1.1
    },
    {
      "cod_failure_reduction_percentage_points": 3,
      "failures_avoided": 3150000.0,
      "reverse_cost_avoided_php": 157500000.0,
      "allocated_overhead_reduction_php": 189000000.0,
      "total_case_cost_burden_reduction_php": 346500000.0,
      "maximum_cost_per_all_cod_order_before_commission_php": 3.3
    },
    {
      "cod_failure_reduction_percentage_points": 5,
      "failures_avoided": 5250000.0,
      "reverse_cost_avoided_php": 262500000.0,
      "allocated_overhead_reduction_php": 315000000.0,
      "total_case_cost_burden_reduction_php": 577500000.0,
      "maximum_cost_per_all_cod_order_before_commission_php": 5.5
    }
  ],
  "regions": [
    {
      "name": "Metro Manila (NCR)",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 33000000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 5940000.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 653400000.0
    },
    {
      "name": "Luzon (excl. NCR)",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 25500000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 6630000.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 729300000.0
    },
    {
      "name": "Visayas",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 20250000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 6480000.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 712800000.0
    },
    {
      "name": "Mindanao",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 19890000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 6961500.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 765765000.0
    }
  ],
  "categories": [
    {
      "name": "Fashion Apparel",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 32760000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 10810800.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 1189188000.0,
      "commission_opportunity_at_category_aov_php": 486486000.0
    },
    {
      "name": "Electronics (New)",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 6600000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 2046000.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 225060000.0,
      "commission_opportunity_at_category_aov_php": 368280000.0
    },
    {
      "name": "Electronics (Refurbished/Second-hand)",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 7140000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 2070600.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 227766000.0,
      "commission_opportunity_at_category_aov_php": 248472000.0
    },
    {
      "name": "Fashion Non-Apparel",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 13680000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 3420000.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 376200000.0,
      "commission_opportunity_at_category_aov_php": 129960000.0
    },
    {
      "name": "FMCG (Beauty, Grocery, Mom Baby & Health)",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 32400000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 7128000.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 784080000.0,
      "commission_opportunity_at_category_aov_php": 370656000.0
    },
    {
      "name": "Lifestyle",
      "monthly_cod_orders_raw_exhibit": 14625000.0,
      "monthly_failed_cod_raw_exhibit": 2632500.0,
      "monthly_platform_case_cost_burden_php": 289575000.0,
      "commission_opportunity_at_category_aov_php": 250087500.0
    }
  ],
  "standardized_comparisons": [
    {
      "dimension": "buyer_segments",
      "name": "< 1 month",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.38,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 38000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 4180000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "buyer_segments",
      "name": "1\u20133 months",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.32,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 32000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3520000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "buyer_segments",
      "name": "3\u20136 months",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.27,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 27000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 2970000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "buyer_segments",
      "name": "6\u201312 months",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.23,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 23000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 2530000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "buyer_segments",
      "name": "> 12 months",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.18,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 18000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 1980000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "delivery_speeds",
      "name": "Same-Day",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.12,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 12000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 1320000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "delivery_speeds",
      "name": "Next-Day",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.17,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 17000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 1870000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "delivery_speeds",
      "name": "Standard",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.29,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 29000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3190000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "delivery_speeds",
      "name": "Extended",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.38,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 38000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 4180000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "couriers",
      "name": "A&B Express",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.29,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 29000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3190000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "couriers",
      "name": "Fast Express",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.31,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 31000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3410000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "couriers",
      "name": "Quick Van",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.33,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 33000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3630000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "couriers",
      "name": "XYZ Express",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.26,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 26000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 2860000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "couriers",
      "name": "Others",
      "condition": "As supplied; per 100,000 COD orders, treating rate as COD",
      "failure_rate": 0.36,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 36000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3960000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "transaction_scenarios",
      "name": "Creator Livestream",
      "condition": "Non-campaign",
      "failure_rate": 0.32,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 32000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3520000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "transaction_scenarios",
      "name": "Creator Livestream",
      "condition": "Mega campaign",
      "failure_rate": 0.38,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 38000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 4180000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "transaction_scenarios",
      "name": "Seller self-livestream",
      "condition": "Non-campaign",
      "failure_rate": 0.24,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 24000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 2640000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "transaction_scenarios",
      "name": "Seller self-livestream",
      "condition": "Mega campaign",
      "failure_rate": 0.3,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 30000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3300000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "transaction_scenarios",
      "name": "Short Video (with product link)",
      "condition": "Non-campaign",
      "failure_rate": 0.29,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 29000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3190000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "transaction_scenarios",
      "name": "Short Video (with product link)",
      "condition": "Mega campaign",
      "failure_rate": 0.34,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 34000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 3740000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "transaction_scenarios",
      "name": "ShopTab (Search & Browse)",
      "condition": "Non-campaign",
      "failure_rate": 0.2,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 20000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 2200000.0
    },
    {
      "dimension": "transaction_scenarios",
      "name": "ShopTab (Search & Browse)",
      "condition": "Mega campaign",
      "failure_rate": 0.26,
      "failed_per_100k_cod": 26000.0,
      "platform_case_cost_burden_per_100k_cod_php": 2860000.0
    }
  ],
  "reconciliation": {
    "payment_order_shares_sum": 0.9700000000000001,
    "region_implied_cod_share": 0.6576000000000001,
    "region_implied_cod_failure_rate": 0.26370133819951336,
    "category_implied_cod_share": 0.7147000000000001,
    "category_implied_cod_failure_rate": 0.26218833076815445,
    "speed_order_share_weighted_failure_rate_cod_mix_unknown": 0.2719,
    "courier_market_share_weighted_cod_failure_rate_cod_mix_unknown": 0.3035
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Raw exhibit allocations are separate views and do not reconcile with headline totals. Do not sum across dimensions or silently rescale.",
    "The PHP60 component is allocated overhead. Scenario total reductions are not automatically cash savings.",
    "Seller forward cost on rescued deliveries still exists. It becomes productive expenditure, not an automatic PHP70 cash saving.",
    "Rescued orders and orders cancelled before dispatch require different revenue and cost accounting.",
    "Savings scenarios exclude intervention costs, extra successful-delivery costs, settlement fees, refunds and conversion losses.",
    "Commission opportunities are gross revenue, not net margin, and depend on the basket value of genuinely recovered orders."
  ]
}